Vaccines against covid allow the death toll to be 60 times lower than in February
At the worst moment of the third wave, at the beginning of the year, 62 people died for every 1,000 infected in the province and now 1 for every 1,000
The vaccines are changing the course of the pandemic of coronavirus , which has its reflection especially on data dead people . And it is that the lethality rate of the virus, the number of dead people in relation to the number of infected has been reduced abysmally in the province of Alicante , according to the models developed by Santiago García Cremades , mathematician and professor at the Miguel Hernández University of Elche .
If at the worst moment of the pandemic an average of 62 people died for every 1,000 infected, right now it takes a little more than a thousand infections for a person to die, according to the graph that shows the death rate of the covid elaborated by García Cremades, Important Award for 2020 representing the experts who have highlighted the importance of technology in the service of health.
The province has four less specialized than in February, with a similar rate of infections
And it is that vaccination has marked a clear difference with previous waves , especially with the third, the one that had the most impact in the province, and this is reflected in the mathematical models. Throughout the pandemic, the wave of infections has run almost in parallel with that of deaths. This time it is different, and both curves have gone separately, the number of contagions very high and with hardly taking off the ground, that of the deceased.
In addition to the number of deaths, vaccines have had an impact on the number of people hospitalized. At the moment, with an incidence above 500 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the province of Alicante, there are 200 people admitted to hospitals, they are four times less than in mid-February, when we came out of the third wave and in the hospitals had more than 800 patients. Then 174 people needed intensive care, according to the latest balance of the Ministry of Health today there are 28.
In the Valencian Community, 76.3% of the population has received at least one dose of the coronavirus vaccine and almost 65% already have the complete schedule. The Generalitat trusts that in the third week of this month of August, 70% of the immunized population will have been reached, although the Delta variant requires that this percentage be higher, at least 85% to guarantee group protection.
The Delta variant is also behind the explosion of coronavirus cases that the Valencian Community and the province of Alicante have been experiencing for a month and a half, coinciding with the end of the restrictions and the beginning of summer. This Monday, precisely the province added the beginning of the week with the highest number of infections since last February . However, the projections made by Santiago García Cremades indicate that coronavirus infections in the whole of the Valencian Community and in the province of Alicante reached their maximum of this fifth wave a week ago and have begun a decline that will continue throughout August.
65% of the population already has the complete schedule of the vaccine and it is expected to reach 70% by the end of August
García Cremades believes, in this sense, that September will begin with low accumulated incidence figures (new cases in fourteen days per 100,000 inhabitants), below 50 cases, which would return us to a scenario like the one before summer.
Restrictions
The decrease in cases would coincide with the restrictions imposed by the Generalitat Valenciana in mid-July to stop the wave of infections. Some restrictions that, among other measures, extended the curfew to 17 municipalities in the province (Sant Vicent del Raspeig, Alfàs del Pi, Alicante, Banyeres de Mariola, Benidorm, Callosa dEn Sarrià, Callosa de Segura, Calp, Dénia, Gata de Gorgos, La Nucía, Muro de Alcoy, Ondara, Pego, Santa Pola, Sax, Teulada and Vila Joiosa). Precisely this week, the Generalitat Valenciana must decide whether to extend these measures for a longer time, in force until next Monday, August 16.
As on previous occasions, the president of the Generalitat, Ximo Puig, will meet throughout this week with the experts who are advising him throughout the pandemic. After listening to the specialists, at the end of the week the Interdepartmental commission will meet to decide what measures to adopt to continue containing the wave of coronavirus infections in the Community.
