Epidemiologists, specialists in Public Health and other health experts are committed to the total paralysis of the economic sectors linked to the hotel and leisure industry as the main nuclei of socialization and contagion, and of any collective activity that may be the focus of community transmission to stop expansion of covid-19 . With hospitals increasingly saturated (in the case of Orihuela and Elda), the scientific community urges interventions that do not paralyze daily life to avoid more drastic measures that, if the curve continues to rise, can arrive in two weeks and last up to five . According to Health data, on Friday five people died in the province from covid, and yesterday a new peak of infections was reached with 732.

Entrepreneurs consider that a closure of the hotel and trade sector will be a fatal blow to these productive sectors and are demanding non-refundable aid to avoid the loss of between 40% and 80% of these businesses. They ask to adjust measures to avoid another strict confinement that would sink the provincial GDP to levels of a decade ago. The unions demand the expansion of the ERTEs as a tool to avoid a "brutal" loss of jobs.

The Central Government and the Generalitat Valenciana rule out a more severe home confinement for now. The scientific community does not give a unanimous answer either and is divided between those who already ask for a strict home confinement as in March, including the stoppage of the productive sectors; the experts who claim to return to telework allowing the classes; and the supporters of a "light" model that basically authorizes going home from work without even being able to go out for a walk. All agree on the basics of restricting mobility as much as possible, avoiding concentration in closed places and cutting off massive activities if they want to avoid a quarantine that is already applied by neighboring countries with lower incidence rates of the virus.

The president of the Spanish Society of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Rafael Ortí, prefers a home confinement of 14 days before the data begins to skyrocket exponentially, stopping, if not all productive sectors, those in which it is evident that they are contributing to a community broadcast. The also head of the Preventive Medicine and Healthcare Quality Service of the Valencia Clinical Hospital considers that it should have acted earlier by closing bars and restaurants, and limiting face-to-face classes at the University, and imparting them remotely. «Confinement measures are radical but sometimes necessary,and like all, they must be based on evidence, not subject to political and economic pressure. The scientist considers that the current perimeter closures should have been applied in advance, when the accumulated incidence began to rise and there was an excess of mobility. Now he thinks they are a patch. "If it is seen that the situation is out of control, it is best to close two weeks as soon as possible and at the end of November there will be another opportunity to show that we want to adequately provide Public Health services", once again overwhelmed by the increase in cases.

José Ramón Martínez Riera, professor at the Department of Community Nursing, Preventive Medicine and Public Health at the University of Alicante, advocates a generalized confinement similar to that of the first wave, given the galloping increase in practically all communities. “As painful as it is, it is the right thing to do. It has to be considered, if we are not heading for a new collapse of the health system. The data show it more and more ». He is in favor of a strict confinement, with a stoppage of the hotel industry and in general of the productive sectors and of returning to telework without going out or going for a walk because it would be "a drain." As an exception, it would allow schools to continue operating "because there is sufficient data to indicate that children do not act as vectors." Ortí disagrees: "There is transmission with a fairly high incidence of cases between 5 and 30 years," he says. Martínez Riera warns that the goal of saving Christmas is a mistake, "it could be the turning point of a new wave."

Epidemiologist José María López Lozano praises the usefulness of isolations such as the one in spring but believes that exceptions can now be introduced to make it less harmful to the economy and society, such as keeping schools open and commerce with reduced capacity and prior appointment. It would close some productive sectors and suppress any social, cultural and sports activity that favors interrelations. He also believes that exposure must be minimized with the telecommuting tool. The professor at the University of Alicante and specialist in Public Health José Tuells considers that a margin must be given to the current measures before applying another drastic confinement. "The health authorities seek balance without completely shutting down economic activity, I see it well as a laboratory of experiences from which you can learn. They try not to paralyze everyday life.

The economic sectors tremble. The Valencian Business Confederation (CEV) maintains that a new quarantine would pose a very serious problem for the economy of the province, the closure of a huge number of SMEs and micro-SMEs, and a large increase in unemployment. “It is necessary to make the economy and control of the pandemic compatible.It should be avoided as far as possible, but if it arises, it should be accompanied by aid to the productive fabric, "says its president Perfecto Palacio. In the same vein, the Chamber of Commerce considers that decreeing a new hard house confinement should be the last frontier and that beforehand measures should be adjusted with aid to mitigate the losses of the affected businesses, as Germany does, which compensates up to 75% of the invoicing of the last fiscal year of each business. Its president, Juan Riera, believes that the closure of the hotel and restaurant industry that other countries and communities already value “would be a mortal blow to tourism and commerce, especially proximity, the sectors that the pandemic has hit with greater strength. With the companies closed, the country goes bankrupt.

The unions demand lasting aid so that the productive sectors, the self-employed, SMEs and micro-SMEs, the majority in the province, can emerge strengthened and the maintenance of the ERTE as a tool to avoid a "brutal" loss of jobs. Yaissel Sánchez, general secretary of the UGT, also demands that the Administration be endowed with more personnel and include European funds for reconstruction in the dialogue tables. Consuelo Navarro, general secretary of CC OO, says that the paralysis of the economy would harm many productive sectors, and is convinced that if society complied with sanitary measures exhaustively, no other confinement would be necessary.

Hoteliers ask for tax exemption and funds to pay rent and loans

The hospitality sector, affected by the continuous cuts in capacity, hours and the prohibition of bars, calls on the administrations for aid in the event of a possible total closure of economic activity. "That our workers are protected with an ERTE charging 100% of the salary," says the president of the Alicante Restaurant Association, César Anca, a provincial entity. For companies they ask for exemption from local taxes, except for the IBI, that is, the night watchmen and garbage fee; as well as aid to pay the rent and the expenses derived from the loans that they have mostly had to subscribe to get ahead. At least it doesn't cost us money. It would stop the destruction of businesses: we don't win but we don't lose. If we have to hibernate to control the spread, the government must help us. '

Commerce believes that another lockdown would exacerbate the problem for many companies

Another confinement would be a serious problem for the trade, in pre-Christmas dates, in a very difficult year in which they have been closed for almost 3 months. It is the opinion of the employers' association of large stores, the Association of Large Distribution Companies. His spokesman, Joaquín Cerveró, considers it more reasonable to take measures to control capacity and distance and hygiene, "since the level of infections in our sector is practically irrelevant." Small businesses see all kinds of inconveniences due to the increase in infections, also in much of the province. The positive part, they point out, is that, if measures are taken now, the curve can be braked, "and that will allow us to get to Christmas with a certain normality," said Francisco Rovira, general secretary of the small and medium-sized business employer (Facpyme ). The businessman does not expect a confinement as harsh as that of March, “but the hotel industry and commerce will be closed to the letter and the places where there are concentrations of people. Better a tough measure now, that we get to Christmas with a brutal increase in infections and then they confine us.