The figures on coronavirus infections that the Ministry of Health offered yesterday represent a small relief for the Valencian Community after a very negative week. Since the last update on Friday, the autonomy registered 1,697 new infections confirmed by PCR test or antigen test, which put the total number of positives at 83,064 people.

This is an appreciable decrease in registered cases compared to the previous day (2,291 positives detected) and the second lowest figure of the whole week , only behind Monday (711 cases), which is usually the day with the least infections reported when offered after the weekend.

In any case, yesterday's 1,697 positives finish off the worst week of the pandemic in the Valencian Community since the beginning of the second wave of the coronavirus in Spain. From Monday, November 9 to Saturday, the Ministry has reported 11,112 new infections detected by PCR or antigen tests, compared to 8,874 positives from the previous week, which in turn were already more than the 6,436 from the previous week.

In fact, and according to the data collected and published on Friday by the Ministry of Health, Valencia is the community that this week has presented the worst trend in the evolution of the disease. The Accumulated Incidence (AI) at 14 days in the Region was 1.23 points higher than that of the previous Friday. This parameter - which is known as the Rate Ratio (it is the quotient of the current AI between the same indicator of 7 days ago) -, is the highest in the State in Valencia, Castelló and Alicante

In percentage terms, the increase in the incidence of covid-19 in the Valencian Community has been 23.2%. Asturias (21.6%) and Cantabria (15.2%) are behind. The worsening of the trend in Valencia, Castelló and Alicante contrasts with that of the State as a whole, where the rate ratio is 0.95 and the weekly increase is - 5.2%.

While in the Valencian Community the health evolution has worsened in recent days, autonomies that during the month of October presented the worst and most worrying rates of infection have experienced a clear improvement, as is the case of Aragon (where the incidence has fallen by 19.2%), Catalonia (- 20.3%) and Navarra (- 32.8%).

The same data collected by the Ministry of Health and updated on November 13 shows an increased risk of regrowth in the Valencian Community. This figure that indicates the AI ​​situation in 7 days if the current growth trend continues (in this case, without the data from yesterday Saturday) is obtained by multiplying the AI ​​of 14 days by the rate ratio. In the Valencian Community the risk of regrowth on November 9 was 272.9 and on Friday the 13th it was 382.6.

On Saturdays the Generalitat does not provide data on deaths, but adding those that it has published between Monday, November 9 and Friday 13, we also see a worsening of the situation in terms of virus mortality. This week, 130 deaths related to covid-19 have been recorded in the Valencian Community. The week before they were 83 and the previous week 60.

Data for hope

Despite everything, there are some data for hope, starting with the decrease in cases that the Ministry of Health detected yesterday and ending with the fact that, despite the negative trend, Valencia is still the third community with the least incidence (311 cases per per 100,000 inhabitants) of the coronavirus in Spain, only behind the Canary Islands (82.24 cases) and the Balearic Islands (245.77 cases).

Another fact that must be taken into account is that, despite the fact that the number of cases reported this week was the highest in the second wave, the negative trend was worse in the Valencian Community between October 19 and November 3 , when rate ratios between 1.3 and 1.57 were registered (last Friday, remember, it was 1.23).

Regarding the risk of regrowth , despite the increase compared to other weeks indicated above, the Valencian Community is the fifth in which this parameter is the lowest and is still below the national average (473.3).

As this newspaper reported yesterday, experts indicate that, although it is hard to see, the peak of the wave is close since the R0 reproduction index - which marks how many people each infected person infects - is falling again, approaching the limit again of 1 that marks the maximum from which it is understood that an epidemic begins to get out of control.

A key date to consolidate this reversal will be the December bridge, when, if measures are not taken to avoid risky practices, the number of cases could once again increase, as occurred on the October bridge.

ICUs, like they were in the beginning

Valencian hospitals currently have 1,487 people admitted, 85 less than this Friday: 137 in the province of Castelló, 481 people in that of Alicante and 869 in the province of Valencia.

What has increased from Friday to Saturday is the number of people who have been admitted to the ICU because of covid-19. There are currently 277 occupied ICU places (22 patients in the province of Castelló, 105 in Alicante and 150 in Valencia) compared to 263 the previous day. It is a similar figure to that registered on March 16 (274).

The new cases put the total number of positives at 83,064 people. By province, the distribution is as follows: 224 in Castelló (9,637 in total); 497 in Alicante (28,388 in total), and 946 in the province of Valencia (45,007 in total). In addition, 30 unassigned cases have been recorded, bringing the total number to 32.